Lenovo, Dell, HP, Acer and ASUS have all warned of 15–20% laptop price rises through 2026 (some forecasts say up to 30%), driven by the same memory shortage wrecking every hardware price this year — and analysts don't expect relief before 2027 at the earliest. If you'll need a laptop in the next 12 months, buying sooner beats waiting. Just buy it right: 16GB of RAM minimum (it's soldered — you can't add more later), 512GB of storage, and watch for "shrinkflation" — same laptop, same price, quietly worse specs.

If a new laptop is somewhere on your to-do list — for uni, for work, or because your current one wheezes when you open a second tab — the timing question suddenly matters a lot. Every major manufacturer has flagged price rises of 15–20% for 2026, the memory chips inside laptops have roughly doubled in wholesale cost in months, and the analysts who track this stuff are unanimous that it gets worse before it gets better. Here's the full picture: why it's happening, whether to buy now or hold, the exact specs worth paying for this year, and a sneaky industry trick to watch for at the checkout.

Why laptops are getting dearer (the 60-second version)

It's the memory crisis — the same one we've covered hitting RAM sticks, PC builds and every console. AI data centres are consuming the world's memory supply, the three companies that make ~95% of it have shifted factories to high-margin AI chips, and DRAM contract prices jumped an estimated 90–95% in the first quarter of 2026 alone, with SSD storage up 53–58% in the same window. A laptop is essentially a screen wrapped around RAM, storage and a chip — so when memory doubles, laptops can't stay cheap.

Manufacturers held prices through the holidays by selling stock bought at old prices. That stock is gone. Lenovo, Dell, HP, Acer and ASUS have all signalled 15–20% increases as new component contracts kick in, with some analysts projecting up to 30% on certain models. One memory maker has even suggested the shortage could run to 2028.

Buy now or wait? The honest decision table

Your situation Verdict
Current laptop is dying / you need one for study or work this year Buy now. Prices rise from here; waiting is paying more for the same machine.
Current laptop is slow but functional Squeeze it, then decide. Free tune-ups first (see below) — if it's still painful, buy sooner rather than later.
You just fancy an upgrade, no real need Wait. 2026 is the worst value year for "want" purchases in a decade. Let the market cool.
You can stretch to last-gen or refurbished Best value play of 2026. Older models were priced before the madness — details below.

The core logic: analysts consistently say prices will rise before they fall, and the new memory factories that would fix supply are years away. "Wait for it to blow over" is a fine strategy for a normal supply blip; this isn't one.

The one spec rule of 2026: buy your RAM upfront

Here's the single most important thing in this article. In most modern laptops, the RAM is soldered to the motherboard — you cannot add more later. And even in the shrinking number of upgradeable models, buying RAM separately now costs a fortune: the cheapest 32GB DDR5 kit in the US recently hit about $375, versus $80–120 a year earlier, and even upgrade-friendly Framework lifted its laptop memory upgrade prices by 50%.

Translation: whatever RAM you buy on day one is what you'll live with for the laptop's whole life, and topping up later is either impossible or absurdly priced. So buy for your last year of ownership, not your first: 16GB is the sensible minimum for study and everyday work in 2026 (operating systems and their new AI features are only getting hungrier), and 32GB if you'll keep the machine 4+ years or do anything heavy — editing, data work, lots of Chrome tabs with opinions. 8GB in 2026 is a trap that feels fine in the shop and miserable by next year.

Watch for shrinkflation: same price, quietly worse laptop

This is the trick almost nobody's warning shoppers about. Industry analysts expect manufacturers to hold sticker prices partly by quietly cutting specs — the tech version of the shrinking chocolate bar. The same model name and the same price tag, but this year's config has 8GB where last year's had 16GB, or a 256GB SSD where 512GB used to live.

Your defence is simple: never buy on model name and price alone. Read the actual spec line for RAM and storage every single time, compare it against last year's version of the same laptop (a 30-second search), and treat any config with 8GB/256GB as a red flag unless it's genuinely bargain-priced. The sticker isn't lying, exactly — it's just answering a different question than the one you're asking.

The 2026 spec checklist (what to pay for, what to skip)

  • RAM: 16GB minimum, 32GB if keeping it long. Non-negotiable and non-upgradeable — see above.

  • Storage: 512GB sweet spot. 256GB fills up fast; and unlike RAM, storage can be externalised with a cheap USB drive if you're stuck — so if the budget forces a choice, sacrifice storage before memory.

  • CPU: don't overpay for the top chip. Mid-tier current processors handle study and office work beautifully; the premium chips mostly buy bragging rights and battery drain.

  • Screen and keyboard: try before you buy if you can. You'll touch these 2,000 hours a year; they matter more than a 10% benchmark difference.

  • Skip: paying extra for "AI PC" branding alone, RGB anything on a study laptop, and 4K panels on small screens (battery vampires you won't notice at 14 inches).

The escape hatches: last-gen, refurbished and education stores

Three legitimate ways around the price wave. Last year's models were built and priced with pre-crisis memory — year-on-year laptop improvements are modest, so a 2024–25 model at clearance pricing is quietly the best value in the market. Refurbished from the manufacturer or a reputable seller (with warranty) stretches that further; a several-year-old MacBook Air, for instance, still handles uni work with ease at a fraction of new pricing. And if you're a student or educator, the education stores run by Apple, Dell, Lenovo, HP and friends offer genuine discounts year-round — bring your student email. Stack an education discount on a last-gen model during a sale and you've basically time-travelled to 2025 pricing.

Aussie timing notes

A few local wrinkles worth using. Mid-year tax-time sales at JB Hi-Fi, Officeworks, Harvey Norman and the like are a genuine buying window — and with semester two around the corner, back-to-uni promos overlap nicely. Officeworks' price-beat policy is handy when the same config is listed cheaper elsewhere. And a warning that applies double in Australia's marketplace scene: with memory prices mad, counterfeit RAM and dodgy "upgrade" listings have surged — buy laptops and any components from established retailers, and treat too-good-to-be-true listings as exactly that.

Already own a decent laptop? Don't buy — tune it

If your current machine is merely sluggish rather than dying, 2026 is the year to squeeze it instead of replacing it. Clear the startup junk, keep 15–20% of the SSD free, and if it's a gaming laptop, our $0 performance guide covers the free wins (upscaling, XMP, settings triage) that routinely add 30–50%. One more nudge: if that old laptop is still on Windows 10, sort your free security updates — it takes five minutes and keeps the machine safely in service until this pricing madness passes.

The bottom line

Nobody loves being told to spend money sooner, so here's the plainest version: if a laptop purchase is coming in the next year regardless, every month of waiting is likely to cost you, not save you — the 15–20% rises are announced, not hypothetical, and relief isn't forecast before 2027. Buy the memory you'll need on day one, read the spec sheet like a lawyer to dodge shrinkflated configs, and lean on last-gen models and education discounts to blunt the damage. And if you don't truly need one? Sit this year out entirely, tune up what you own, and let someone else pay crisis prices.

Frequently asked questions

Should I buy a laptop now or wait for prices to drop?

If you'll need one within the next 12 months, buy now. Major manufacturers have announced 15–20% price rises for 2026 driven by the memory shortage, and analysts don't expect meaningful relief before 2027 — waiting is more likely to cost you than save you.

Why are laptop prices going up in 2026?

Memory. AI data centres are consuming DRAM and SSD supply, pushing contract prices up 90–95% in Q1 2026 alone. Lenovo, Dell, HP, Acer and ASUS have all flagged 15–20% laptop price increases as those component costs flow through.

How much RAM do I need in a laptop in 2026?

16GB minimum for study and everyday work; 32GB if you'll keep the laptop four-plus years or do heavy multitasking or creative work. Most laptop RAM is soldered and can't be upgraded, and buying RAM separately is extremely expensive right now — so get it upfront.

What is laptop spec shrinkflation?

Manufacturers keeping the same model name and price while quietly reducing specs — 8GB instead of 16GB, 256GB instead of 512GB — to absorb component costs. Always read the exact RAM/storage line and compare against last year's config before buying.

Are refurbished or last-gen laptops worth it in 2026?

More than ever. Older models were built with pre-crisis components and priced accordingly, and year-on-year improvements are modest. A last-gen or manufacturer-refurbished machine with 16GB of RAM is the best value play of the year.

When will laptop prices go back down?

Not soon. Memory factory capacity is booked out, prices are forecast to keep rising through 2026, and one major memory maker has suggested the shortage could persist to 2028. Treat current pricing as the new normal for planning purposes.